DUBAI - For people in the climate world, the annual two-week extravaganza that is COP28 is a moment to see and be seen – even if this particular event is bankrolled by oil and gas revenues. The COP is a chance to meet all the think tanks, businesses and policymakers you spend much of the year speaking to over Zoom. As a journalist, you get access like nowhere else: instead of being presented with a spokesperson or junior analyst, suddenly there is the CEO of an organisation right in front of you, ready to be cornered straight after a panel for a quick comment.

Much of the early days of COP28 – when more than 100 global leaders descended onto Dubai’s Expo City – could be spent celebrity-spotting. From the UK alone, PM Rishi Sunak, energy minister Claire Coutinho, former PM Tony Blair, leader of the opposition Keir Starmer, shadow climate minister Ed Milliband, and former chief secretary to the treasury were all spied by Energy Monitor. 

“I’ve caught the bug – I enjoy it very much,” said former environment minister Therese Coffey, when asked by Energy Monitor why she was in attendance at this climate conference (her fifth), despite losing her ministerial portfolio a few weeks before. 

“COP is great because instead of just having high-level debates and discussions, suddenly here is a forum where all countries and peoples with different needs and strengths converge," she said. "There is a real chance to turn actions into ambition.”

Unlike previous COPs, such as COP27 (which ran out of water) or COP26 (where a plug or a place to sit down was worth its weight in gold), the Expo 2020 Centre that is hosting COP28 is a swish, multi-building outdoor complex, blessed with space, swanky food and drink facilities, and an army of attendants at the beck-and-call of the estimated 80,000 attendees.

Herein lies an uncomfortable irony. The UAE is able to put on a grand event like COP28, in a facility estimated to have cost $7bn, because of the vast oil and gas resources it is blessed with, which have for decades now given the government huge wealth to spend on high-profile events and flashy facilities.  

The good times also look set to continue, with the economy growing 7.9% thanks to spiking oil production and high oil prices, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). GDP is expected to grow by 3.4% this year, and 4% next year. 

The wealth that the UAE has compared to many of its Arab neighbours makes many in the country – perhaps understandably – unwilling to forsake the oil and gas that has been so valuable. 

When asked what she thought of the UAE’s plans to continue producing oil and gas over the coming decades, one Emirati woman working at COP28 told Energy Monitor that she and her compatriots are mostly only grateful for the opportunities oil has provided to “build all of this”, gesturing to the shiny Expo buildings all around. 

Opinions differed ahead of the COP over whether it was appropriate for a petrostate such as the UAE to host the conference, especially so given that the appointed president, Sultan Al Jaber, is also CEO of UAE state oil firm ADNOC. 

The controversy came to a head four days into COP28, when it emerged that Al Jaber had claimed that there was “no science” which suggested fossil fuels must be phased out to meet our climate goals. He said this despite the fact that the latest UN Emissions Gap report makes it clear that CO2 released by burning fossil fuels represents around two-thirds of current greenhouse gas emissions. 

“COP28 President Al Jaber’s science-denying statements are alarming and raise deep concerns about the Presidency’s capacity to lead the UN climate talks, at a time when leadership and a clear vision are most needed,” said Romain Ioualalen, global policy lead of the NGO Oil Change International, in response. 

“Of course, denying science has been part of the fossil fuel industry’s playbook for decades. But science is not up for debate: we must phase out fossil fuels to have a liveable planet,” he added.

At a hastily organised press conference on Monday, however, Al Jaber rowed back on the comments saying: “I have said over and over the phase-down and the phase-out of fossil fuel is inevitable. In fact, it is essential.”

Ironically, the controversy over his earlier comments may have pushed the president to be more critical of fossil fuels than he might otherwise have been. At his opening address, he had called “[to] look for ways and ensure the inclusion of the role of fossil fuels”. 

Discussions at COP28 have by-and-large been judged a success so far, with the establishment of a “loss and damage” fund to compensate low-income countries hit by extreme weather events, as well as an unprecedented pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030, which has been signed by some 118 countries. Data released by the presidency showed that over $57bn in climate finance had been mobilised in the first four days of the conference, ushering in a “new era for climate action”. 

For many, however, the holy grail would be the inclusion of calls to “phase-out” fossil fuels in the final cover text of the conference, which is a key policy document all 198 parties to the UNFCCC will take back to their governments. The latest draft of the COP28 cover text, released on Tuesday morning, still included the language "phase-out".

So far, the best parties have managed (at both COP26 and COP27) is a “phase-down” of “unabated coal”, with no mention of oil and gas. Al Gore said at COP28 that calling to phase out fossil fuels – in other words, oil and gas as well as coal – would be “one of the most significant events in the history of humanity”. 

Ahead of COP28, many thought it unlikely such a thing could ever take place in the UAE. But with a cautious optimism in the air, an obvious desire from the UAE for the talks to be a success, and immense personal pressure on the president, perhaps it is not the impossibility it once seemed. 

COP28 have negotiators released the first draft of their response to the Global Stocktake synthesis report, showing the world is not on track to its climate targets, and there was cautious optimism on the ground in Dubai as language on a "fossil fuels phase-out" was included. 

The Global Stocktake is the main accountability mechanism built into the 2015 Paris Agreement. COP28 is set to see countries offer a response to the Global Stocktake synthesis report, published earlier this year, which showed that the world remains well off track its target to limit global warming to well below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. 

The draft text, published on Friday, included language calling for a “phasedown/out" of both “fossil fuels” and “coal”, with negotiators set to choose which words they ultimately decide on in the coming days.  

That choice is set to be a complicated one: While a group of more than 100 countries including the UK, Germany, Japan and Chile are calling on countries to agree to a phaseout of fossil fuels, other countries – including host United Arab Emirates (UAE) – are much more reticent. 

Sultan Al Jaber, the president of COP28 and chief of UAE national oil company ADNOC, asked delegates in Dubai to "adopt a different mindset" in his opening address.

"It is essential that no issue is left off the table... we must look for ways and ensure the inclusion of the role of fossil fuels," Jaber said on Monday. 

Nevertheless, external commentators were cautiously optimistic that language on fossil fuels had been included in a draft at all. 

“All the ingredients are there, just have to mix them together in a coherent string of words now”, said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council, on X. 

“Those that were watching #COP27 will remember [the] presidency diligently failed to put fossil fuel phaseout/down on any of the draft texts for the cover decision, despite calls from many parties,” added Simon Evans, from the climate publication Carbon Brief. 

Shirley Matheson, WWF global NDC enhancement coordinator, added: “The Global Stocktake at COP28 must trigger the climate action needed limit global warming to 1.5C. 

“With this draft, the UN Secretariat have given countries something to work with, but there is a long way to go before we can be sure of a transformative outcome. 

“Options are on the table, including both weak and ambitious text on fossil fuels. Countries must now be bold and agree to the options that will give us the best chance of securing a liveable planet, such as measures to end the age of fossil fuels.”

Meanwhile, on the same day that the draft text was released, the leaders of more than 100 countries descended on the Expo 2020 Centre in Dubai to add impetus to the ongoing climate talks. 

William Ruto, the president of Kenya, fresh from hosting the first ever Africa Climate Summit in September, said that his region was facing climate disaster. 

“In eastern Africa, catastrophic flooding has followed the most severe drought the region has seen in over 40 years,” he said.

 “A tendency to ignore Africa’s developmental and industrial needs … is no longer a tenable position,” he added. “Turning Africa into a green powerhouse is not just essential for the continent, it is also vital for global industrialisation, decarbonisation.”

The President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, called for other countries to follow Brazil’s example. 

“We have adjusted our climate goals, which are now more ambitious than those of many developed countries. We have drastically reduced deforestation in the Amazon and will bring it to zero by 2030,” he said.

“The planet is fed up with unfulfilled climate agreements. Governments cannot escape their responsibilities. No country will solve its problems alone. We are all obliged to act together beyond our borders,” he added.

Notable absentees from the world leader’s forum included the world’s biggest emitters, China and the US. 

On 30 November, some 75,000 delegates including politicians, ministers, representatives from civil society, the private sector, international organisations and media organisations (including Energy Monitor) will descend on Expo City Dubai for what is expected to be the largest COP ever. Leaders including Pope Francis and King Charles III are set to attend (although reportedly, US President Joe Biden will not). Why is COP28 the most important COP since Paris in 2015?

In many ways, the 28th annual UN climate conference in Dubai, (literally ‘Conference of the Parties’), is expected to be similar to what we have seen before. Talks will largely focus on how to honour the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding agreement to limit global warming to at least below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally 1.5°C, which has been signed by 195 parties.  

For the past few years, ever since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report in 2018 warning that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant, parties have focused on the more ambitious target of 1.5°C, which would require global emissions to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050. 

To be on track for net zero 2050, the IPCC has said that emissions will have to drop 45% compared with 2010 levels by 2030. However, current trends have analysts predicting record emissions in 2023, a year in which a series of emissions and extreme weather records have been broken.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also warned this year that the world is likely to experience at least one year where the global average surface temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels over the next five years. Meanwhile, the recent UN Production Gap report warned that governments are currently planning to produce 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. 

COP hosts are always expected to impose “something of their own agenda” on proceedings, says Alex Scott from the think tank E3G. This year, that includes new initiatives to tackle the impacts of climate change on health, improve access to finance for fragile and conflict-affected states, as well as a big push for food system transformations. 

By the second week of COP28, all eyes will be on the UN negotiations, which are set to result in an agreement that will update climate ambition and policy for the year ahead. All 198 countries who are party to the UNFCCC will have to sign up to the final cover text for the negotiated outcome to be adopted. 

Why COP28 matters: The Global Stocktake

There is one major difference in this year’s COP agenda, however, which has led the Stockholm Environment Institute’s (SEI) Richard Klein to label it “the most important COP since the Paris Agreement” in a recent pre-COP28 briefing hosted by SEI. 

That difference is the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GS), a process outlined in the Paris Agreement that is the main mechanism through which progress on climate action is assessed. The GS comprises three stages, starting with the gathering and synthesising of information on climate change and climate action from governments, which began at COP26 in Glasgow. This is followed by an analysis of progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement (which resulted in a synthesis report released in September); the third stage will take place at COP28, where findings will be discussed and an appropriate policy response will be agreed upon. 

The synthesis report details how the world remains well off track from meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, calling for “system transformation” on “all fronts”. However, there is hope still , with “actionable solutions” to combat global warming including clean technologies that can be rapidly deployed and action that can be taken to unlock trillions of dollars in investment. 

The report also details division (“Some Parties… note with concern that some developed countries whose emissions already peaked decades ago, commit to achieving net zero GHG emissions only by 2050”), and calls for a significant boost to adaptation efforts (“Most observed adaptation efforts are fragmented, incremental, sector-specific and unequally distributed across regions”). 

“This is the most important session of the Conference of the Parties since Paris in 2015, because the outcome of the Global Stocktake will basically set the agenda for the next five or 10 years of climate discussions,” says Richard Klein. “What we have seen from the stocktake so far is a mixed bag: We are moving in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough.” 

E3G’s Scott adds that the stocktake is “the next stage in the building of the Paris Agreement architecture, which is the global governance that we have had on climate change since 2015”. 

“The policy outcome of the stocktake is probably not going to land at this COP, but what we will get is a political direction on where countries want to go, given what we know right now,” she adds. 

Loss and damage

Beyond the Global Stocktake, another key task for negotiators is getting a new loss and damage fund up and running. This fund was arguably the main legacy of COP27, and promises to compensate developing economies that are least responsible for climate change for climate impacts.

Ahead of COP28, negotiators reached agreement on a framework for the fund, with the World Bank set to host it on an interim basis for four years. Developing countries have already expressed disappointment that there has been no immediate capitalisation of the fund, and no clear language making rich countries liable for financial losses related to climate change-induced extreme weather events. 

While the framework “delivered on its mandate”, it was “the furthest thing imaginable from a success”, said Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at NGO ActionAid USA. 

COP28 will be crucial in determining what the fund will look like, and how it will operate in practice. Loss and damage is set to feature some of the most contested negotiations – and should they fail, bad blood may hinder other areas of COP28 discussion.

“There is a lot left to be decided on loss and damage at COP28, and there is no guarantee that a final decision will be reached”, E3G’s Scott adds. 

Antony Froggatt, deputy director of the climate programme at think tank Chatham House, believes that we should be vigilant of pledges that are made to provide loss and damage funding.

“Obviously, there is a tendency for countries to move existing climate finance or development financing into new funding mechanisms, rather than allocating new funds,” he says. “Loss and damage negotiations will be a crucial test to the goodwill of rich countries to actually help out.” 

Adaptation and mitigation at COP28

COP28 is also set to see landmark climate adaptation negotiations, with governments due to adopt a framework for achieving the Paris Agreement’s 'global goal on adaptation' (GGA). No clear definition of the goal was provided in the Paris Agreement; the aim of the GGA is to develop guidelines to allow countries to have more focused, measurable and comparable adaptation goals to pursue. 

The outcome of the GGA remains unclear, but what we do know is that the world is falling hugely short on adaptation. A recent UN report found that the financing gap between requirements and achievements is now at a staggering $194bn–366bn per year. Even as needs continue to grow, international public funding for adaptation in developing economies actually fell by 15% in 2021.

On mitigation, meanwhile, there is expected to be renewed focus on renewables, after G20 leaders agreed in September to “pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally”, as well as to double energy efficiency, by 2030. 

If countries agree to adopt this target, it would be a “landmark moment”, says Froggatt, adding that it “would require a total transformation of the energy sector, even in countries in Europe, which have so far led on renewables penetration globally”.

Scott, meanwhile, expects that “not every country will sign up to a tripling renewables pledge”, but even if it occurs on the sidelines of the main negotiations, she believes a renewables pledge will nonetheless be a key tool to “build up momentum towards the ultimate COP decisions that we need” if the world is to meet its climate goals.

Climate finance 

For Klein at the SEI: “The elephant in the room is climate finance.”

As at previous COPs, negotiations are set to be hugely impacted by the massive need for financial resources to decarbonise and sustainably develop low-income countries, and the reluctance of high-income countries to boost the financing available. One difference this year, though, is the fact that the past 12 months have seen significant discussions over global financial architecture reform; policymakers will be poised to see how these are incorporated into the climate negotiations. 

It will likely remain unknown whether the long-promised $100bn in annual climate finance for developing countries, first promised in 2009 for 2020, and later pushed back to 2025, has been met in 2023. It so far remains unmet. 

COP28 will see negotiations begin for a new global climate finance target, to replace the $100bn goal after it expires in 2025. Hugely differing opinions on how big this target should be are expected, as well as tension over who is defined as a “developing country”, with the likes of China and Saudi Arabia (still defined as “developing”) likely unwilling to join the climate finance contributor base. 

The UAE and its fossil fuels 

Much criticism ahead of COP28 has focused on the role of the UAE, an oil-dependent economy that is the seventh-biggest oil producer globally, as host. The appointed head of negotiations at COP28 – Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber – is also CEO of the country’s national oil company. 

The UAE’s status as a petrostate was further brought to light by a recent Energy Monitor investigation showing how the country is set to produce just under 40 billion barrels of oil equivalent over the next 70 years. Fossil fuels are by far the largest source of carbon emissions, responsible for 90% of CO₂ released in 2022, according to the Global Carbon Project. 

Opinions remain divided over whether having a petrostate as host really presents a problem for the success of the COP28 negotiations. For example, Armond Cohen, founder of the non-profit Clean Air Task Force (CATF), recently argued at its pre-COP28 briefing that “somewhere like the UAE is the best place to have the climate conference”, given “the world is still 80% powered by fossil fuels, and demand is still growing”.

“Climate is not a bubble: solutions have to operate within the constraints of physics, economics, local politics and geopolitics. We [CATF] believe[s] the UAE is a perfect place to have the cop because essentially how we deal with the fossil fuel transition is of supreme importance to meeting climate goals,” Cohen said. 

For Froggatt at Chatham House, it is important to remember that the UAE is not the first oil and gas producer to host a UN climate conference. “The UK hosted COP26, and we have recently seen the extent to which the government is saying: we believe it is our right to continue developing our fossil fuels," he says. 

Froggatt adds that it is important, too, not to blame the presidency for the direction of discussions. “The presidency is the facilitator, but it is up to national governments to determine what actually happens,” he added. 

E3G’s Scott, meanwhile, points out that the UAE has “put a lot of money and a lot of advisors into COP28, and they want it to be a big success”. Nonetheless, she believes that the presidency “needs to be kept on the hook” to deliver a big response to the Global Stocktake. She adds that the country’s diplomatic capacity “is not inherent”, unlike a country such as the UK, which has significant experience leading global events. 

COP26 was the first conference where fossil fuels – specifically, “efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” – were included in the final cover text of the two weeks of negotiations. The same language was included in the COP27 cover text, although this time a coalition of more than 80 countries pushed – and in the end failed – for the COP26 language on coal to be expanded to include all fossil fuels.

It remains to be seen whether the coalition’s ambitions will be achieved at COP28 – with Al Jaber as President, this may be tricky. 

Significant progress is possible

With so much to be negotiated, and so many countries divided across issues, the outcomes of COP28 remain uncertain. This lack of clarity extends to the very question of who is expected to host the next COP. While an eastern European country is scheduled to host next, according to the UNFCCC framework, Russia is currently refusing to accept any nation that is a member of the EU.  

However, even if outcomes remain uncertain, major progress is possible. CATF’s Lee Beck points to the success of the global methane pledge, which was adopted at COP26 and dictates that signatories must reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030, as evidence of just how much progress can be made if countries really work towards it. 

“The methane pledge has really moved towards implementation, with more and more countries signing up, and countries really putting money into the goal,” says Beck, who also spoke at CATF’s pre-COP28 briefing. Major announcements on methane in the energy, waste and agricultural sectors are expected ahead of COP28, according to CATF. This November has already seen China, the US and EU make major commitments to reduce methane emissions. 

For Froggatt, with the renewables target, the loss and damage fund, and new finance and adaptation targets all on the table, “the pieces are certainly there that could make COP28 a major success”. 

“What needs to happen now is investors, business and countries need to come out of the conference and think: yes we really are rising to the challenge, and we can do this,” he says. 

The beginning of COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, means a year has passed since the world agreed to “keep 1.5°C alive” at the COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow. Over the course of the intervening year, however, that tentative note of collective optimism – and Covid-19's carbon emissions reductions – have been overtaken by geopolitics and a global energy crisis.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has resurrected fault lines in international relations not seen since the Cold War, while restrictions on Russian oil and gas have made 'energy security', rather than climate policy, the political priority. Nevertheless, events ranging from record floods in Pakistan to record droughts in China continue to remind us that the climate problem is worsening.

Hope is not lost. Data reveals the transition to clean energy continues at a record pace, partly out of this new ambition for energy security. Some 257GW of renewable electricity capacity was installed in 2021, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In China, the five-year plan for 2021–25 will add 874GW of solar and wind capacity to the grid – equivalent to the entire electrical network of Europe. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US means the country's wind power capacity should double, and solar power capacity quadruple, by 2030.

To mark the opening of COP27, Energy Monitor tracked the latest carbon emissions data: the fundamental metric that determines our progress in addressing climate change. In doing so, we can see just how far the world is from reaching the ambition laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement: net-zero emissions by mid-century, which is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says is required for a good chance of keeping global warming to the “safe” limit of 1.5°C. 

COP27 carbon emissions: up and up

Headline global emissions data remains bleak. The world’s carbon emissions rose by more than 60% between 1990 and 2021, according to data provided by the climate scientists behind the Global Carbon Project initiative. This comes despite scientists first predicting the global warming phenomenon more than a century ago and UN climate conferences now taking place for some 30 years. 

Overall emissions continue to rise, even as the IPCC has warned that emissions must fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 for the world to have a chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Country-level emissions data is a story of development inequality. The major industrial hubs in Asia and the West produce the most overall emissions. Meanwhile, high-consumption lifestyles in the West, as well as fossil fuel-powered economies in the Middle East, give countries in those regions the greatest per capita emissions. 

At the other end of the spectrum, Africa contains 17% of the world’s population but produces only around 4% of the world’s emissions, with around 80% of those coming from just six countries: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. A major challenge for negotiators at COP27 will be to provide greater financial and technical support for African nations to be able to develop without producing the same volume of emissions that industrialised countries have produced.

Reasons to be hopeful 

There are, however, grounds for optimism. Many of the world’s most developed countries now consistently record year-on-year declines in emissions as their economies have transitioned away from heavy industry and they have decarbonised their electricity grids. The UK, for example, has seen emissions fall by 45% since 1990, with around 45% of electricity now coming from renewable power sources. 

Overall, since 1990, 69 countries and territories have seen their emissions fall versus 150 that have seen emissions rise. Major industrial players including the US, Germany and Italy are among the countries that have seen declining emissions. 

It is also good news that countries comprising 91% of global GDP have pledged to reach net zero by around mid-century, including all of the world’s biggest emitters. Most of these pledges only occurred in the past two years, so while their impact on real-world emissions may be limited for now, this could soon change, predicts Henning Gloystein from the risk consultancy the Eurasia Group.

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"Net zero moved from being a rich country fad to a global trend in the second half of 2021,” says Gloystein. “There is a lot of legitimate criticism that net zero isn’t enough to drive change – but even if it isn’t, I think we will soon begin to see economies change much more rapidly as they chart their decarbonisation pathways.”

Time for policy behind pledges

However, the hard truth is that real-world policy remains at loggerheads with these long-term pledges. Just 6% of all the new pledges made at COP26 are adequately supported by both policies and interim targets, found analysis of climate policy by the think tank Climate Action Tracker.

At the end of October, the annual UN Emissions Gap report found that current policies would mean global warming of around 2.5°C – a devastating prospect.

When climate progress is viewed through an energy transition lens, the news is similarly bad. Even as renewables continue to grow apace, the general trend since the Paris Agreement remains negative among the world’s wealthiest nations. 

According to data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, between 2015 and 2019, G20 consumption of renewable energy increased by 9.3 exajoules (EJ), but annual consumption of energy from fossil fuels increased by 14EJ. This latter figure is an amount greater than the entire annual primary energy consumption of Brazil.

The tide must be turned, and fast. The Institute for European Environmental Policy recently found that emissions must now fall 3.4% year-on-year up to 2030 for there to be a chance of global warming remaining “well below 2°C”, which is what countries are aiming for under the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, the world is on course for a 1% rise in emissions in 2022, shows the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency. Urgent action to reduce carbon emissions is required at COP27.